Current Market Overview (4H Chart):
The EUR/USD market is currently moving within a defined structure, showing clear breaks of structure (BOS), mitigation zones, and liquidity grabs. This analysis will walk through the key levels and potential movements for the coming sessions.
1. Bearish Order Block (OB) at 1.12016
The market recently tested a bearish order block (OB) around the 1.12016 price level, identified as a key point where sellers gained control, leading to a decline in price. This level remains a significant resistance zone, and further upside attempts could face challenges here.
2. Shift in Market Structure: BOS and MSS
- Break of Structure (BOS) is evident at multiple points. Each BOS suggests that the market is continuing its trend of lower lows and lower highs, confirming a bearish bias overall.
- At the same time, Market Structure Shifts (MSS) indicate moments of temporary bullish strength, typically as part of corrective moves before the market resumes the larger downtrend.
3. Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is spotted between 1.11400 and 1.11600, aligning with an imbalance in price action where buyers dominated, leaving a gap that the market might revisit for correction. This zone can act as a liquidity area where short-term traders may look for potential entries.
4. Bullish Order Block (OB) at 1.09700
On the downside, a Bullish Order Block (OB) is resting around 1.09700, a point where the market previously reversed with strength. Should the price break lower, this zone could serve as a strong demand area, potentially initiating a new bullish leg in the market.
5. Potential Move: Bullish Retracement
Currently, the price is in the BFR (Break of Resistance) area, with indications that it could retrace towards the 1.11100-1.11300 level. The predicted move aligns with the retracement back to fill the liquidity around the FVG zone.
- The market is likely to see resistance near the Bearish OB if it retraces upwards.
- Should the price fail to hold support at 1.10500, further downside towards the 1.09700 Bullish OB could be expected.
6. Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: 1.12016 (Bearish OB)
- Support: 1.09700 (Bullish OB), 1.10500 (BFR)
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.11400 – 1.11600
Conclusion:
While EUR/USD has shown some bullish momentum, the overall market structure remains bearish with several key resistance levels still intact. The immediate path could see a bullish correction toward the 1.11100-1.11300 area before the sellers regain control. Traders should watch how price reacts to these levels before committing to long or short trades.
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